Dear weather-watchers,

I trust that you have all been well.

Swakopmund

• Swakop has had a cold start into 2023, which is normal, if the rainy season in Namibia is poor.

• Winds have been on the strong side, and with a total of only 9.8 mm for the rainy season (Sept – May) so far, we are tying with 2006/2007 for the driest rainy season in Swakop for the last 22 years.

Windhoek

• Windhoek started the year with near-average temperatures, stronger winds and a rainy season that basically fizzled out in mid February, though its tail end has yet to run its course.

On the 13th of September 2022 I wrote:

‘A weak La Nina is still in place at the moment, but rapidly disappearing from December onwards and heading into neutral territory and beyond by about May 2023. All by its own, this would translate into a wetter ‘small’ rainy season (Oct – Dec), but a normal-to-drier main rainy season (Jan – May). .. Overall my estimate would be an average to below-average 2022-2023 rainy season for Namibia.’

Unfortunately, this has pretty much played out so far. Cyclone Freddy has contributed to the abrupt end of the rains in February by preventing the Indian Ocean moisture from making it past the Mozambique Channel for almost 4 weeks. While some tropical cyclones, or at least their remnants, have made it right across the southern African subcontinent and to Namibia, and even occasionally across into the Atlantic Ocean in the past couple of rainy seasons, Freddy never made it past eastern Zimbabwe, although making two attempts to move west. I am starting to wonder if a change in the El Nino/La Nina pattern (which is happening right now) may be having an influence on the steering currents of the Indian Ocean cyclones. It is something I have never heard comments about before and so I will be watching this closely in the next rainy seasons.


ENSO News

Looking forward, you can see the latest EL Nino/La Nina predictions in pages 5 and 6. Note that the prediction on page 5 is from early this week and is thus a full four weeks more recent than that on page 6.

Page 5 shows that we have now crossed the neutral sea surface temperature state for the tropical Pacific Ocean earlier than originally predicted and we are heading into El Nino territory quite fast. The forecast shows a worrying picture for us, as we may be heading for a solid El Nino event, where the central Pacific Ocean may be a full 1.8C warmer than normal. And I have seen predictions as high as +2.4C. So we are going through a full 2.7 C warming event (and possibly more) in the space of only 11 or 12 months, which is quite dramatic, and it will be felt across the world. As I said last September ‘An El Nino event releases enormous amounts of heat into the atmosphere and brought us both heat and drought in the 2018-2019 season. Given that the last three La Nina’s have given us relatively cool and wet summers, we need to both mentally and physically prepare for the next El Nino, when it decides to come. Climate change is likely to exacerbate the heat we must prepare for in this event.’

I would therefore advise to be ready and prepare for a poor 2023/24 rainy season with excessive heat across Namibia. The IOD (Indian Ocean Dipole) may change or modulate this forecast marginally, if we are lucky, however IOD forecasts are not yet available for the coming rainy season.


I am sorry to break such dire news, but I am sure you have by now heard similar forecasts from other sources. I trust that with timely preparation we should be able to make the best out of the situation.

Best regards to all,
Klaus



Klaus-Peter Knupp
EARTHMAPS CONSULTING CC
Geophysical Consulting

Letzte Nacht ergiebiger Schneefall im Khomashochland.